Guidance from official data
computed 26 Sept 2026, 16:09 MYT · every card targets one group of Malaysians · how we work
Independent analysis of official Malaysian open data (data.gov.my, DOSM). Computed statistics are real; card text is model-inferred from those numbers. Not financial or investment advice.
Top actions model-inferred
- Drivers: Budget fuel at current levels, plan long trips around the weekly price announcement, and compare routes or carpool where possible.
- Families: Keep a month of grocery receipts to measure your own inflation. The shopping trolley, not the pump, is still the better guide to your cost of living.
- Factory workers: Export-factory workers may see more overtime and shift openings. SME suppliers can ask buyers for longer contract commitments while orders are strong.
Drivers:
Petrol has jumped about a third in a year and keeps climbing every week
Computed statistics
RON95 reached about RM4.57 a litre in late September 2026, roughly a third more than a year earlier, and diesel rose by a similar margin. Pump prices have stepped up week after week since mid-August, well outside their normal range.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Budget fuel at current levels, plan long trips around the weekly price announcement, and compare routes or carpool where possible.
evidence · computed
fuel_ron95 2026-09-24: RM4.57, +RM1.20 yoy, six consecutive weekly anomalies z 3.0-5.1. fuel_diesel RM5.42, +RM1.45 yoy.
Families:
Overall prices rose under 2 per cent, the fuel surge has not spread to the whole basket
Computed statistics
Headline inflation was 1.9 per cent in August 2026, only a touch above a year ago, even though pump prices are up by about a third. The statistical link between fuel and the overall basket this year has been close to zero.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Keep a month of grocery receipts to measure your own inflation. The shopping trolley, not the pump, is still the better guide to your cost of living.
evidence · computed
cpi_headline_yoy 2026-08: 1.9%, +0.6pp yoy. Correlation fuel_ron95~cpi_headline_yoy r=0.023 (n=20).
Factory workers:
Exports are on a record run, about 45 per cent above last year
Computed statistics
Exports in August 2026 ran about 45 per cent higher than a year earlier, and the monthly trade surplus has stayed at record territory every month since March. Factories are producing about 5 per cent more than a year ago.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Export-factory workers may see more overtime and shift openings. SME suppliers can ask buyers for longer contract commitments while orders are strong.
evidence · computed
trade_exports 2026-08: RM191.0b, +RM59.7b yoy (+45%). trade_balance RM28.1b, +77% yoy, anomalies every month Mar-Aug 2026. ipi_index +4.7% yoy.
Parents:
The grocery bill is calm again, food inflation back under 2 per cent
Computed statistics
Food prices in August 2026 were about 1.9 per cent higher than a year earlier, with only a slight upward nudge in the most recent months.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Compare unit prices rather than packet prices, and build a small stock of shelf-stable staples gradually in case regional supply news turns bad again.
evidence · computed
cpi_div_01 2026-08: +1.9% yoy, slope_3m +0.25. Historical contrast: 2008-09 anomalies 9.2-12.3%.
Renters and bill payers:
Rents and utilities are creeping up faster than most other bills
Computed statistics
Housing, water and electricity costs rose about 2.1 per cent in the year to August 2026, roughly a full point faster than the pace a year before, the clearest steady acceleration among the major spending groups.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Renewers can negotiate a longer lock-in at the current rate. House-sharers should recheck how bills are split, since utilities are rising too.
evidence · computed
cpi_div_04 2026-08: +2.1% yoy, change_12m +0.9pp, slope_3m +0.35, steepest acceleration among divisions.
Commuters:
Bus and ride fares have not followed the pump, yet
Computed statistics
Transport prices in the consumer basket rose about 2 per cent over the past year, versus almost no change a year earlier, while diesel climbed by about a third.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Regular commuters can lock in monthly passes or shift to off-peak travel now, before any fare catch-up lands.
evidence · model-inferred
cpi_div_07 2026-08: +2.0% yoy, was +0.2% a year earlier. fuel_diesel +36% yoy over the same window.
Diners:
Eating out is pricier, but the increases have cooled a lot
Computed statistics
Restaurant and hotel prices rose about 2.1 per cent in the year to August 2026, down from a pace above 7 per cent in late 2022.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Loyalty apps and set lunches hold their value far better than during the reopening years. Worth using while menu inflation stays low.
evidence · computed
cpi_div_11 2026-08: +2.1% yoy, -1.4pp yoy. Late-2022 to early-2023 anomalies 6.9-7.4%. Pandemic trough -9.9 to -11.1% in 2020.
Households:
Your postcode sets your inflation, from half a per cent to 2.5
Computed statistics
In the year to August 2026 prices rose about 0.5 per cent in Sarawak but about 2.5 per cent in Negeri Sembilan, the widest gap among the states.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Households planning a move or retirement can weigh the living-cost gap between states, since a two-point difference compounds year after year.
evidence · computed
cpi_state_sarawak 2026-08: +0.5% yoy (lowest). cpi_state_negeri_sembilan +2.5% (highest). National headline +1.9%.
Lower-income families:
The lowest-spending households face slightly gentler price rises
Computed statistics
The basket tracked for lower-spending households cost about 1.7 per cent more in August 2026 than a year before, a touch under the national 1.9 per cent.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Tight-budget households can use subsidised-goods channels and bulk buying with neighbours to stretch the ringgit while essentials stay capped.
evidence · computed
cpi_lowincome_idx 2026-08: 137.3, +1.7% yoy in index terms, vs headline +1.9%. No anomalies in 200 observations.
Phone and internet users:
The era of cheaper phone bills is over, for now
Computed statistics
Communication prices are up about 2.6 per cent in the year to August 2026, after falling by more than 5 per cent through mid-2025.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Students and heavy data users on old promotional plans should recheck renewal terms before the promotion lapses.
evidence · model-inferred
cpi_div_08 2026-08: +2.6% yoy. Anomalies: May-Sep 2025 at -4.5% to -6.4%, then +3.4% in Jul 2026.
Savers:
Core inflation slipped below 2 per cent, quiet prices under the surface
Computed statistics
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, eased to 1.7 per cent in August 2026, slightly cooler than a year ago and far below its peak above 4 per cent in late 2022.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: With core this quiet, money in interest-bearing savings or fixed deposits holds its purchasing power well. Compare renewal rates before any auto-roll.
evidence · computed
cpi_core_yoy 2026-08: 1.7%, -0.3pp yoy. Anomalies Oct 2022 - Mar 2023 at 3.8-4.2%.
Savers and overseas travellers:
Malaysia earns more abroad than it spends, yet large sums are flowing out too
Computed statistics
In the quarter to March 2026 the current account surplus widened to about RM10.8 billion, while roughly RM27 billion left through the investment account in the same quarter.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: With strong export earnings and big outflows side by side, ringgit swings can stay sharp. Stagger foreign-currency purchases for trips or tuition instead of buying in one go.
evidence · model-inferred
bop_ca 2026Q1: RM10.77b, +RM2.6b yoy. bop_fa -RM26.96b. bop_neo +RM33.2b, anomaly z=3.89.
People with asthma:
Haze can multiply fine-dust levels fivefold, but official readings stop at 2022
Computed statistics
In September 2019 the monthly fine-dust reading hit roughly five times the level recorded at the end of 2022, the worst spike in the series. That series has not been updated since December 2022.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Do not wait for official updates. Keep N95 masks and purifiers ready every dry season, and treat any smell of burning as the signal to act.
evidence · computed
air_pm_2.5 2019-09: 52.86 (z=6.06) vs 2022-12: 10.75. Series ends 2022-12, stale by about 45 months as of Sep 2026.
Job seekers:
Two in three jobs are in services, but the count is more than four years old
Computed statistics
The latest count, from early 2022, puts about 64 per cent of workers in services and roughly one in ten in agriculture. No fresher update exists in this dataset.
Model-inferred interpretation
Consider: Weight your skills toward services roles, in digital, care and logistics, while treating the exact shares as dated.
evidence · computed
emp_services 2022-01: 63.8% of employment, annual series (n=22). emp_industry 25.4%, emp_agriculture 10.8%. Series ends 2022-01, stale.
What the data shows computed
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